法国巴黎百富勤--亚洲博彩行业研究报告2008年5月

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Paradigm shift ahead
Abrupt shifts in Southeast Asia’s gaming landscape
We initiate coverage on the Malaysia/Singapore gaming sector with an
UNDERWEIGHT rating. Upon Singapore’s emergence in the gaming
space in 2009-10, we believe it will directly challenge Resorts World’s
(RW’s) current near-monopoly position within Southeast Asia’s gaming
industry. Separately, despite possessing one of the two operating rights
for integrated gaming facilities in Singapore, Genting International (GIL)
is currently hobbling along on its wounded leg, in our view, as no
contributions will be realised from the Singapore Sentosa project until
2H10. Moreover, revenue and earnings for GIL’s existing gaming
operation in the UK is severely affected by the implementation of the
smoking ban and higher gaming duties.
Initiate Resorts World (HOLD) and Genting Int’l (REDUCE)
Our target price for RW is MYR3.32/share, supported by both SoTP
valuation and 15x 2008E P/E (historical average since 1998). Upon
higher competition ahead, we estimate RW’s 2008-10 recurring earnings
CAGR growth to slow to 6%, down substantially from 15% CAGR growth
registered during 2005-07. Initiate with HOLD. Separately, our SoTPbased
target price for GIL is SGD0.492/share. Although the current
share price represents only a slight premium compared with the Sentosa
project (SGD6b capex of SGD0.60/share), we argue more downside is
still ahead, on more potential significant earnings downgrades from the
Street with recurring losses in 2009-09 and potential cost overruns for
the Sentosa project. Initiate with REDUCE.
Macau is still where the money is
Our OVERWEIGHT rating on the Macau gaming sector is maintained, on
the back of an estimated 18-20% CAGR in gaming revenue in 2008-10
as well as recent confirmation by Macau Chief Executive Edmund Ho,
who said no more gaming licences and land rights for casino usage will
be granted in the future. This completely removes all the overhang of
excess supply. As Macau is 2,466 km and 2,536 km away from KL and
Singapore, respectively, we do not believe these markets will engage in
direct competition. Our top picks for Macau gaming are Melco Int’l and
MPEL, with target prices of HKD14.33 and USD16.87, respectively.

Contents
Abrupt shifts in SE Asia’s gaming landscape ................................................................ 3
Macau is still where the money is .................................................................................. 7
Company Updates ....................................................................................................... 11
Resorts World................................................................................................................................12
Genting Int’l ...................................................................................................................................33
Melco PBL.....................................................................................................................................54
Melco International........................................................................................................................59

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2008-5-15 22:37:00 上传

法国巴黎百富勤--亚洲博彩行业研究报告2008年5月
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