澳门博彩行业研究报告2008年4月

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Macau Gaming Industry
SECTOR REVIEW
A mixed bag of results ahead
In our view, investors will be surprised both positively and negatively by
upcoming 1Q08 results. While MPEL is expected to report its first quarterly
profit, Sands Macao and The Venetian Macao likely saw QoQ declines in
gaming revenue, based on our channel checks. In our view, junket
operators’ movements can change market shares substantially. Market
sources indicate that a junket operator will set up an A-Max-like operation at
Oriental Casino, which may severely impact the operator’s existing partners.
On the other hand, the 60% YoY increase in 1Q08 GGR, thanks to the robust
high-roller segment, has led us to upgrade our 2008 GGR projection by 15%.
■  Some are happy, some are not. While MPEL is expected to report its first
quarterly profit, both Sands Macao and The Venetian Macao likely saw QoQ
declines in gaming revenue, according to our channel checks. Wynn likely
maintained QoQ growth in gaming revenue and a stable market share,
according to the same market sources.
■  Junket operators swing market shares. Junket operators essentially control
over 50% of GGR in Macau, and their moves between casinos can swing
market shares substantially. According to industry sources, an operator
currently servicing Wynn Macau will set up an A-Max-like operation at SJM’s
Oriental Casino, which in our view may have a huge impact on market shares.
■  Revising up 2008 GGR projection by 15%. The 60% YoY increase in 1Q08
GGR, thanks to the robust high-roller segment, has led us to revise up our
2008 GGR projection by 15% to US$14.6 bn.

A mixed bag of results ahead
In our view, investors will be surprised both positively and negatively by the upcoming
1Q08 results. While MPEL is expected to report its first quarterly profit, both Sands Macao
and The Venetian Macao likely saw declines in gaming revenue, according to our channel
checks. As casinos are highly dependent on junket operators, their movements can shift
market shares substantially. Market sources indicate that a junket operator is going to set
up an A-Max-like operation at Oriental Casino, which may have a huge negative impact on
the operator’s existing partners. On the other hand, the 60% YoY increase in 1Q08 GGR,
thanks to the robust high-roller segment, has led us to revise up our 2008 GGR estimate
by 15%.
Some are happy, some are not
Among the US-listed Macau gaming concessionaires, namely Las Vegas Sands (LVS,
$74.02, not rated), MGM Mirage (MGM, $61.20, not rated), MPEL (MPEL.OQ, $12.75,
OUTPERFORM, TP $20.00) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN, $100.69, not rated), all will report
1Q08 results in early to mid-May. While we expect MPEL to report its first quarterly profit,
both Sands Macao and The Venetian Macao likely saw QoQ declines in gaming revenue,
based on our channel checks. Wynn likely maintained QoQ growth in gaming revenue and a
stable market share, according to the same market sources. MGM’s Macau business is
relatively small and will be buried in its full accounts. In our view, the results will deliver
both positive and negative surprises, and now may be a good time for investors to adjust
their investment strategies.
Junket operators’ moves drive market share changes
Given MPEL’s substantial market share improvement since the formation of its partnership
with A-Max (2919.HK, HK$0.71, not rated), it is very clear that junket operators are the key
determining factor in market share distribution, especially as the high-roller segment now
accounts for more than 75% of GGR in Macau. With junket operators essentially
controlling over 50% of Macau’s GGR, their movements between casinos can swing
market shares substantially. According to industry sources, a junket operator that currently
services Wynn Macau and some other casinos will set up an A-Max-like organisation at
SJM’s (not listed) Oriental Casino, which, in our view, could have a huge impact on market
shares going forward.
Revising up 2008 GGR projection by 15%
The Macau gaming industry achieved another record quarter in 1Q08, with GGR growing
60% YoY to US$3.8 bn. This growth rate is much stronger-than our original full-year
projection of 25.6% YoY. The stronger-than-expected growth was once again driven
mostly by the high-roller segment, which saw GGR increase by 71% YoY (or 22% QoQ) to
US$2.6 bn. As such, we have revised up our 2008 GGR projection to US$14.6 bn, while
also raising our five-year (2007-2012) CAGR projection from 15.3% to 20.2%.
Key recommendations
MPEL remains our top pick in the sector. In our view, MPEL’s upcoming 1Q08 results will
be an important milestone, marking the company’s successful turnaround. Although many
investors have already noticed its substantial market share gain over the past four months
(Crown Macau captured about 20% of the market, made up of 29 casinos, in March),
many are still sceptical about its ability to transform this astonishing market share into
profitability.
On the other hand, our channel checks indicate that LVS’s casinos in Macau experienced
QoQ declines in 1Q08 GGR. Investors should also be aware of the impact on Wynn
Macau from the potential departure of a junket operator.

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