英国博彩行业研究报告2008年5月

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The UK Gambling Sector
A Risky Business
The UK Gambling Market has been transformed in recent years in
terms of both products and regulation, resulting in a period of
strong growth for the 'traditional' gambling companies. However,
that period of 'super' growth has now largely finished and it's now
going to be a case of focusing on international and online
capabilities. In this regard we believe Ladbrokes has the most
opportunity and is our 'best' pick of this sub-sector.
Regulatory Risk
Regulation is still the main feature of the sector. There has been a lot of
changes in regulation in recent years with the 2005 Gambling Act in the UK
generally perceived to have been good for the sector, whereas the UIEGA in
the US (in October 2006) was clearly disastrous for those UK quoted online
companies with US customers. In this sector there is always the risk that
something could appear unexpectedly that could derail current expectations.
One such potential piece of regulatory news flow could come from the
current review of 'high stake high prize' gaming machines which, although in
all likelihood will result in no changes - it could 'knock' current profit
expectations by about 20% for Ladbrokes (LAD) and William Hill (WMH) if
they were required (say) to reduce their number of machines from four to
three per shop. News flow on this is expected in the summer.
On the other hand, there is some speculation that the Minister of Sport will
announce shortly some positive news concerning machines in bingo clubs. If so
we estimate that this could increase our current estimates of Rank's (RNK)
profits by about 11%, if 4 Section 21 type machines per club are allowed.
Ladbrokes – The 'Quality Play' - BUY TP 352p
LAD in our view is the quality play in the sector, with an attractive
combination of strong market positions in both its traditional LBO markets as
well as in its online operations. It also is further advanced in developing new
markets than its peers. This together with share buy backs should enable it
to grow EPS at about 14% pa for both 2009/10 and deserves a higher rating
than a P/E of just 12.4x Cal'08 (exc high rollers).
William Hill - The 'Value Play' - BUY TP 442p
Although its high exposure to the mature UK LBO market is always likely to
mean that WMH's EPS growth is towards the lower end of the scale, it does
have some upgrade potential if (as we expect) it develops its online sports
book successfully. We believe even without this, on a P/E of just 9.1x for
Cal'08, that it is undervalued and we rate it a Buy with a target price of 442p.
Rank – Unlikely Bid Target – Poor Outlook - SELL TP 71p
We are concerned that the potential increase in casino numbers over the
next few years (from 140 to about 176 by 2012) is going to significantly
outstrip demand. For bingo clubs, although there maybe a little recovery
next year, we see little prospect of the industry being able to stop the
decline in admissions over the medium term. Largely for these reasons we
would be doubtful if Rank will be bid for, and on fundamentals we rate the
stock a Sell (target price 71p). The 'speculated' news flow above could raise
this 11% - but it would still be a Sell.

Table of contents
􀂾 Regulatory framework……………………………………………………..3
􀂾 Sector performance……….……………………………………………….3
􀂾 SWOT analysis…………………………………………………….…..……5
􀂾 SWOT matrix………………………………………………………………...8
􀂾 TELMEX Quantitative analysis...............................................................9
Marketing performance & SWOT analysis............................22

􀂾 TELMEX Mexico Quantitative analysis................................................30
􀂾 America Movil Quantitative analysis...................................................37
Marketing performance & SWOT analysis..................51
􀂾 Telcel Quantitative analysis..................................................................59
􀂾 Axtel Quantitative analysis...................................................................66
Marketing performance & SWOT analysis..................................77
􀂾 Nextel Mexico Quantitative analysis....................................................85
􀂾 Maxcom Quantitative analysis.............................................................93
􀂾 Grupo Iusacell Quantitative analysis.................................................105
Marketing performance & SWOT analysis...............117
􀂾 Grupo Movil Access Quantitative analysis.......................................125
􀂾 Alestra Quantitative analysis.............................................................136
Marketing performance & SWOT analysis............................147

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