内容介绍:
This paper is a summary of the Arch models publicity since 1982 and their application on the
Value at Risk of Portfolio, with an analysis of the impact of the bad news on the "market humors"
and as a result on the assets volatility. It try to explain the different tests used on the selection of
the best model for the estimation of the volatility. The results suggest that in our market, like in
others, each series has its own "personality", so for each series I applied the model, which more
fix to predict the volatility. I found how the returns on stocks are affected for the news, detecting
euphoric markets (Merval 1990-1991) and markets strongly impacted by the crises.
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