摩根大通：2009年澳门博彩行业展望

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Macau Gaming Sector
Macau 2009 outlook: It's not just about travel
restrictions
Hong Kong
Gaming
Billy Ng, CFAAC
(852) 2800-8597
billy.hl.ng@jpmorgan.com
Steven Li, CFA
(852) 2800-8598
steven.mh.li@jpmorgan.com
Joanne Cheung
(852) 2800-8596
joanne.cy.cheung@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
See page 50 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
27 vs. 200 vs. 242 vs. HSI
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
10/27/2008 11/10/2008 11/24/2008 12/8/2008 12/22/2008 1/5/2009 1/19/2009
Shun Tak Melco Galax y Hang Seng Index
Source: Datastream.
• Question is on the demand side. Global economic slowdown and travel
restrictions will make 2009 a challenging year for Macau, in our view. We
forecast FY09 gaming revenue to drop 12% in our base case scenario
assuming that the Chinese economy will bottom out by mid-2009, and
easing of travel restrictions will only be towards the year-end.
• Supply improves but still an issue. With the suspension of the LVS’s
Phases 5 and 6 and delay of Galaxy World, the supply picture of Macau
gaming has improved. We forecast that the number of tables will only
increase 31% to 5,281 by 2010, 28% less than our original forecast.
However, any increase in supply in this economy increases the risk of
intensifying competition, in our view.
• Predicting timing of easing of restrictions is a challenge. The
transparency of the travel policy has always been low. We believe the
central government will continue to be supportive of Macau and some Tier 2
and 3 cities might be added to the individual visitation scheme by the May
Golden week. However, we believe the government is not going to urgently
lift restrictions in the next six months, so we tend to believe that major
easing, if any, will only come towards the year-end after the new Macau
chief is elected and closer to the celebration of the 10th anniversary of the
Macau handover.
• Overall, 2009E earnings visibility is low. This is due to the uncertainty of
the timing of the policy easing, unknown magnitude of the economic
slowdown, and potential intensified competition due to the opening of the
new casino. Besides travel restrictions, tightening the enforcement of
currency restrictions (according to Next Magazine, a top junket was arrested
in China in December) could have a significant impact on gaming revenue.
On the potential positives, the sector might benefit from margin expansion if
the commission cap is enforced effectively.
• Switch to Shun Tak. We stay Neutral on Galaxy and Melco but are OW on
Shun Tak. After a rebound of around 127% from the Oct-08 trough, we
believe share prices of Galaxy and Melco reflect some of the positive
potential. We see better entry point when Galaxy’s price is below HK$1 and
Melco’s below HK$1.8. We think Shun Tak offers better value at this point
after underperforming Galaxy and Melco by 70%. At 66% discount to NAV
and 0.38x book, we believe Shun Tak has already priced in a very negative
outlook on Macau property. Please see below for our new Dec-09 price
targets for the three stocks.

Table of Contents
Investment recommendation...................................................3
Gaming revenue: Down 12% in 2009E....................................5
Should gaming be defensive?.................................................6
Travel restrictions: Anybody’s guess.....................................8
Supply creates demand?.......................................................11
Supply has improved but outlook still tough for 2009E......11
Supply forecast ......................................................................13
Potential margin expansion can be a positive driver ..........16
Infrastructure ..........................................................................19
Hotel: Supply outlook also improves ...................................23
Competition on the rise .........................................................24
We remain positive for the long term ...................................25
Market share breakdown .......................................................26
Companies
Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK; Neutral, PT: HK$1.45).........31
Melco International (200 HK; Neutral, PT = HK$2.5) ...........38
Shun Tak Holdings (242 HK; Overweight, PT = HK$3.5) .....44

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