英国博彩行业研究报告2009年1月

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Gambling Sector Research
James Hollins – Equity Analyst +44 (0)20 7776 6571 james.hollins@danielstewart.co.uk
Sales Team +44 (0)20 7776 6931 sales@danielstewart.co.uk
The Gambling Annual
The gambling sector was down in Q4
2008, but outperformed the market. We
continue to see value across the sector
􀂄 Gambling has proved more resilient than the wider
consumer discretionary sector during Q4 and FY 2008
􀂄 Despite marginal outperformance, we continue to see
attractive value across the majority of gambling stocks
􀂄 Our key picks are William Hill, Playtech and Sportingbet

Contents
The Gambling Annual 4
Recommendations 5
Key offline pick 5
Key software pick 5
Key online pick 5
Key sell pick 5
Buy recommendations 6
Hold recommendation 6
Q4 sector performance 7
2008 annual performance 9
What will drive growth? 10
Offline gambling 10
Online gambling 11
Broadband penetration 11
Improving regulatory outlook and geographic expansion 14
Technology and product developments 15
Industry immaturity 15
Consolidation 15
Growth forecasts 19
Online growth estimates 21
Forecast changes 26
Consensus estimates 28
The US situation 29
UIGEA speeds into action 29
Potential for industry regulation 29
Likelihood of regulation 32
Valuations 35
888 Holdings 38
bwin Holdings 44
Ladbrokes 50
NEOVIA Financial* 56
Paddy Power 62
PartyGaming 68
Playtech 74
Rank Group 80
Sportingbet* 86
Unibet 92
William Hill 98
Disclosure Checklist 104

The Gambling Annual
The gambling sector was down in Q4
2008, but outperformed the market. We
continue to see value across the sector
􀂄 Gambling has proved more resilient than the wider
market and consumer discretionary sector during Q4 and
FY 2008.
􀂄 The gambling sector has fallen by 22.6% since our August
2008 sector note, against the FTSE All Share down by
27.2%, the Travel & Leisure sector dropping by 30.0% and
an AiM market down by 49%.
􀂄 Despite marginal outperformance, we continue to see
good value across the majority of gambling stocks.
􀂄 We have adjusted estimates on all stocks to reflect a
weaker consumer outlook, although ratings still offer
attractive upside based on a combination of expected
online growth and resilient cash flows.
􀂄 Our key Buy picks are William Hill, Playtech and
Sportingbet.
􀂄 We are also Buyers of 888 Holdings, bwin Holdings,
Ladbrokes, NEOVIA Financial, PartyGaming and Unibet.
􀂄 We move Paddy Power from Buy to Hold, with Rank
Group dropping from Hold to Sell.

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