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Asia: 2H09 Outlook
Pricing in a V; Earnings Are Now the Key
Market valuations back at historical average – On P/BV, Asia ex-Japan is trading at
a multiple (1.7x) that historically has taken two years to reach post a recovery. In
other words, the market is pricing in a V-shaped recovery (forget L or U). Likewise,
analyst forecasts suggest an earnings decline lasting a mere one year – a Vshaped
earnings rebound. With a V already priced in, economies and earnings will
have to surprise positively for markets to make further substantial headway. A
P/BV of 1.4x is more in keeping with both ROE and prior recoveries. At that level,
it would be time to double up.
Dividend yield does well out of a recession – The desire to buy growth is greater
than the desire to buy yield. Yet coming out of recessions, buying yield delivers
better returns than going for growth, as it equals beaten-down stocks,
cyclicals/tech, real estate and banks. Growth starts beating yield towards the end
of the market cycle. But that’s a long way off, in our view.
North Asia over South Asia – Stronger growth prospects, better earnings revisions
and attractive valuations push us in the direction of North Asia. Also, it reflects
our sector preferences. If you are overweight tech, it is north Asia. If you are
overweight banks, it’s more North than South. Telecoms are the exception to the
rule. We continue to have a value tilt through large caps, whose size and
oligopolistic tendencies give them better pricing power and more stable cash
flows.
Dear Client
Welcome to the mid-year Asia/Pacific Road Ahead, in which our strategists and
sector analysts chart the investment landscape as they see it over the second half
of 2009.
In May, we were proud and delighted to learn that Citi Investment Research and
Analysis (CIRA) ranked #1 for Asia Pacific in both the weighted and un-weighted
surveys conducted by Institutional Investor. In terms of stock picking and earnings
modelling, as evaluated by Starmine, CIRA was the only broker globally to be
ranked top 3 in each of the regions measured – Asia, Europe and the US.
While it is always heartening to receive such recognition from the client base that
we serve, we are under no illusions that we need to be as adaptive and dynamic as
the markets we cover. In this latest edition of the Road Ahead, we offer a genuinely
pan-Asian investment perspective, with full contributions by our Australia and
Japan strategists and analysts. Also as part of our quest for alpha, our top-down
coverage is expanded with the inclusion of standalone sections by our Technicals
and Derivatives analysts.
Never has the need for an integrated regional (and, indeed, global) perspective
been starker, in my view. In the past few months, our analyst teams have
collaborated to offer an informed analysis of cross-border deals and developments
that had investment ramifications beyond the headline news. Deals such as Bharti-
MTN, Ranbaxy-Daiichi Sankyo, Rio-Chinalco and Kirin-Lion Nathan. As will become
clearer over the next few months, we have a new initiative underway that sets a
globally consistent framework for better coordinating and leveraging our industry
research.
Part of our client-service commitment is providing structured forums in which
investors can enjoy unrivalled access to Corporate Asia's key decision-makers. At
the end of June, we again hosted our India Investor Conference, the largest of its
type in India (attended by more than 400 investors and 75 corporates). Just as
ambitious are the Taiwan and Greater China investor conferences that are being
held in Taipei (October 12-13) and Beijing (October 14-16). I hope to see many of
you there.
As ever, the aim of this issue of the Road Ahead is to provide a thought- and action-provoking roadmap to investing in
Asia's equity markets in the next six months and beyond. Please feel free to share with me any thoughts you have on how
we can make it as relevant as possible to the investment process in pan-Asia.
目录
Regional / Macro Strategy 5
Asia ex-Japan Equity Strategy 7
Economics 17
Quants 27
Derivatives / Multi Strategy 33
Technical Analysis 39
Country Strategy 47
Australia 49
China 53
Hong Kong 57
India 61
Indonesia 65
Japan 69
Korea 73
Malaysia 77
Singapore 81
Taiwan 87
Thailand 91
Sector Strategy 95
Autos & Auto Parts 97
Banks 101
Chemicals 107
Conglomerates 111
Consumer 115
Education Services 119
Gaming 123
Healthcare 127
Insurance 131
Internet & Media 135
IT Services 139
Metals & Mining 143
Oil & Gas 147
Online Gaming 151
Property 157
Semiconductors & TFT-LCDs 161
Small/Mid-Caps 165
Tech Hardware 169
Telecoms 171
Transportation 175
Utilities 179
Appendix A-1 185
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