瑞士信贷：东亚证券市场投资策略报告2009年6月

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David & Goliath
Research Analyst
Kenny Lau, CFA
(Regional Sector Head)
852 2101 7914
Gabriel Chan, CFA
(Hong Kong Small Caps/Macau Gaming)
852 2101 6523
Adrian Chan
(Hong Kong Small Caps)
852 2101 6469
Jinsong Du
(China Small Caps/Healthcare)
852 2101 6589
Justin Liu
(China Small Caps)
852 2101 7350
Teddy Oetomo
(Indonesia Small Caps)
62 21 2553 7911
Sanghoon Kim
(Korea Small Caps)
822 3707 3737
Minseok Sinn
(Korea Small Caps)
822 3707 8898
Foong Wai Loke
(Malaysia Small Caps)
603 2723 2082
Su Tye Chua
(Singapore Small Caps)
65 6212 3014
Clarice Khoo
(Singapore Small Caps)
852 2101 6035
Sidney Yeh
(Taiwan Small Caps)
886 2 2715 6368
Chai Techakumpuch
(Thailand Small Caps)
662 614 6211
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
The ASEAN dream
To chase for returns in a market rally, investors usually rotate from high quality
liquid stocks to medium quality liquid laggards. Unfortunately, many investors
usually leave their money at the low quality illiquid stocks when the rally ends.
Asian small caps have risen 77%, outperforming the MSCI AxJ by 26% since
mid-December 2008. At the beginning of the rally, the more liquid and less
expensive East Asia small caps rose first. The ASEAN small caps lagged,
despite their outperformance against the large caps of their respective markets.
As investors are looking for less expensive laggards, the trend has reversed
with Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia small caps catching up nicely since
May 2009 (charts of the week). Even the quietest Malaysian small caps have
had their days since June 2009. China small caps, which are full of story flow,
continue to maintain their best performance in the region.
Another ASEAN member Vietnam also has performed well, seeing its stock market
jump 37% in a month (Luks Group (0366.HK, HK$4.68, NR)), a cement and
property play in Vietnam, will join our A Date with David investor event in Hong
Kong on 16 June). Similar to the stock rotation in a rally, we are now seeing the
money rotating from the stronger to weaker markets. The implications are clear.
Charts of the week
Relative performance of the country small caps to NJA small-cap index
The tales of Davids
Hong Kong
Macau Gaming Sector – May scorecard: LVS saw 5.3 p.p. drop in market share 9
Macau Gaming Sector – Strong industry trend continued in May 10
Johnson Electric – Still struggling in the fragile auto market though the worst should be over 11
MPEL – How much market share does CoD need to achieve consensus FY10E EBITDA? 11
China
Hopefluent – Takeaways from ‘A Date with David’: seeing no government policy intervention 17
Wasion – Takeaways from ‘A Date with David’: growing in a power niche 18
CPID – Lowering coal price assumptions; hydro power asset injection imminent 19
New Oriental – Studying in the US, Commonwealth countries, or China? EDU has a product for you 19
CPID – EPS accretion from Wu Ling Power acquisition 20
Indonesia
Indofood Sukses – An attractive leverage growth story 27
Medco Energi – New report: Positive sentiment on oil price, but execution risks remain high 27
Korea
MKIF – Ample cash flow generation through refinancing activities in 1H 31
Malaysia
BToto – Premium to market is gone 40
Taiwan
Epistar – Lesser concern on competition 52
Everlight – New catalysts in 2H09, while visibility not yet clear 52
I-Chiun – Business back on track helped by improved LED and LCD market 53
Thailand
LPN Development – Two towers with 1,100 condo units sold out in one day 60
True Corp – Core operations performing well, but restructuring is still the key catalyst 60
Central Pattana – Signs of improving spending are gathering pace 61
Sino-Thai E&C – Winner of Purple line mass transit’s second contract 61

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