瑞士信贷：印度证券市场投资策略报告2009年6月

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With the new government, India is again abuzz with the word “reforms”.
This time around, though, “reforms” should be in the form of multiple
small changes rather than any big bang, “game-changing” overhaul, as
was the case in the 1990s. This report studies in detail 30 such
possible steps. Direct economic benefits from most of them will accrue
only after a few years, yet their announcements could play a significant
role in altering investor perception, risk appetite and valuation, leading
to much-needed capital flow.
■
History suggests that a new Parliament starts with a bang, as it clears
many more legislative bills in the first three years of its formation,
compared with the period in the run-up to the next election. A clear
victory for the incumbent should ensure that this trend continues,
particularly when there are many already-discussed, pending reforms
that just require government approval to be finalised. Our analysis on
the political parties in favour and against various bills suggests that
the absence of the Left in the government should also help. Lastly, the
new ruling party appears more keen on reforms than before.
■
From a stock market perspective, in the near term, the reforms will most
benefit companies that are negative cash flow, highly indebted and in
need of equity financing at a reasonable cost. Most infrastructure,
construction, real estate and metal companies fall into this category.
Among the listed companies, we see direct maximum benefit for oil &
gas, metals and financial companies in the next few months.
Table of contents
Reforms: mostly in the details with impact mainly in investment flows ................................5
Initial post-election phase is most important; Left’s absence will help .................................8
Financials, metals and oil & gas firms are likely to be major sector beneficiaries..............10
Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Bill, 2008 ........................................11
Allow 100% FDI in higher education ..................................................................................13
Allow for-profit institutions to enter primary education market ...........................................15
The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) Bill..........................17
Increase in foreign ownership cap in insurance from 26% to 49%.....................................19
Amendment to the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952...........................................21
Banking Regulation Amendment Bill, 2005........................................................................23
Reduce minimum government holding in PSBs from 51% to 33% ....................................25
Allowing greater participation by foreign banks including M&A..........................................27
Implementation of Goods & Services Tax (GST) system...................................................29
Disinvestment of government stake in PSUs .....................................................................31
Adopt accrual based accounting for the budget.................................................................33
Extend benefits of simplified compliance to more companies............................................35
Raise the conditional “hire and fire” limit from current 100 employees ..............................37
Allow employment on contract basis in core activities .......................................................39
National Policy on R&R Bill, 2007 ......................................................................................41
Implementation of the New National Mining Policy ............................................................43
Decontrol of price of petroleum products ...........................................................................45
New tariff mechanism for natural gas pipelines .................................................................47
Hike the APM price of natural gas......................................................................................49
Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) ............................................................................51
Include lending to power projects under priority sector lending .........................................53
Allow Real Estate Mutual Funds (REMF) in India ..............................................................55
Relax the FDI limits in single & multi-brand retail...............................................................57
Dismantle government controls on sugar sales process....................................................59
Intra-circle M&A in telecoms sector....................................................................................61
Allow end-to-end mobile number portability .......................................................................63
Introduction of 3G services in India....................................................................................65
Provision of long distance calling cards .............................................................................67
Allow unrestricted Internet telephony .................................................................................69
Appendix I: List of pending bills in Parliament....................................................................71
Appendix II: Disinvestment history of India ........................................................................73
Appendix III: FDI limits .......................................................................................................74
Appendix IV: Government holding in PSU banks...............................................................75
Appendix V: Abbreviations .................................................................................................76

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