摩根斯坦利：澳门博彩与地产行业研究报告2009年4月

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Investment conclusion: Our Attractive Industry view is
underpinned by visible signs of improvement in visitor
arrival and gaming revenue, potential margin expansion
based on cost-cutting measures, commission caps, and
the belief of medium-term fundamentals being intact.
Key catalysts to take the stock higher:
a) Visa Restriction: We believe that visas across the
border are being processed at a much faster rate (once
in one month) as compared to 4Q08 (once in three
months). We see further easing to once in 15 days soon.
b) Commission Caps: We expect commission caps to
be implemented this year, driving EBITDA margin for
casino operators (with significant VIP share) to increase
significantly, moving the stocks higher. Further costcutting
measures should drive margins higher.
c) Property sales to improve post stimulus package:
Government package for first-time home buyers should
stabilize property prices after dropping by more than
50% from the peak for select developments.
d) Asset Sales: We expect potential sale of existing
assets by Las Vegas Sands could change the
competitive landscape, favor players with strong
balance sheets, and remind players to build at a
reasonable pace.
Stock Implications: We are raising our rating for
Galaxy (from EW to OW) and Melco (from UW to EW)
and retaining OW for Shun Tak based on our attractive
view of the Industry. We see more upside for Galaxy
than Shun Tak. We expect gaming revenue to decline by
11% in 1H09 before seeing 4% and 16% recovery in
2H09 and 2010, respectively.

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关键词：行业研究报告 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 摩根斯坦 行业研究 研究报告 地产 摩根斯坦利 博彩 澳门

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