摩根斯坦利：澳门博彩行业研究报告2009年7月

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Macau Gaming &
Property
Macau Post COD
Investment conclusion: Our Attractive Industry view is
underpinned by visible signs of improving credit
conditions, consumer confidence, residential price
increases, potential margin expansion based on cap on
junket commissions, and revision of China GDP
estimates.
Stock implications: We initiate coverage of MPEL with
an EW rating and a PT of US$5.5. We also raise our PTs
for Melco/Galaxy/Shun Tak by 33%/67%/56% based on
better multiples driven by higher growth and a lower
discount to NAV. We prefer Galaxy and MPEL over
Melco and Shun Tak. The stocks look undemanding,
trading below book value and at around 8-9x
EV/EBITDA. We see the following potential catalysts:
a) Stocks are driven by gaming revenue, which in
turn has a positive correlation with China/HK GDP:
Our recently upgraded GDP forecast for China from 7%
to 9% for 2009 and from 8% to 10% for 2010 could help
the gaming companies post better-than-expected
revenue growth in 2H09-10. We expect 4%/15% growth
in 2H09/2010.
a) New CE announcement on 26 July: Although we do
not expect any ground-breaking announcement on visa
restrictions, the new regime will be helpful in kickstarting
some of the infrastructure projects and could
receive positive signals from Beijing.
b) Commission caps: We expect the recent voluntary
cap on junket commissions by City of Dreams and The
Venetian starting July 1 could push others to follow suit.
This could drive up EBITDA for casino operators by
5-30%, in our view.

Contents
Investment Case............................................................................................................................................................. 3
We remain constructive on the sector .................................................................................................................................................3
We see upside in the medium term.....................................................................................................................................................4
But there are near-term headwinds.....................................................................................................................................................4
Valuations Look Reasonable ........................................................................................................................................ 5
What’s Changed?................................................................................................................................................................................5
Theme 2: Commission Cap to Drive Margins Up......................................................................................................... 8
Theme 3: Macau Residential Property Fundamentals Stabilizing ............................................................................. 9
Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK, HK$2.05, PT HK$3.00, OW)................................................................................... 11
Investment Thesis: Raising PT to HK$3.0.........................................................................................................................................11
Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (MPEL.O; US$4.85; PT US$5.50; EW) ........................................................... 15
Investment Thesis: Initiate at Equal-weight .......................................................................................................................................15
Shun Tak (0242.HK, HK$5.19, PT HK$5.00, Equal-weight)........................................................................................ 19
Investment Thesis: Downgrading to Equal-Weight............................................................................................................................19
Melco International (0200.HK, HK$4.51, PT HK$4.40, EW)........................................................................................ 25
Investment Thesis: Maintain Equal-weight ........................................................................................................................................25
SJM Holdings (0880.HK, Current Price HK$2.04, Not Covered) ............................................................................... 29
Risk-Reward Analysis and Financial Summaries ......................................................................................................32
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK; HK$2.05; PT HK$3.00; OW)......................................... 33
Risk-Reward Snapshot: MPEL (MPEL.O; US$4.85; PT US$5.50; EW) ..................................................................... 34
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Shun Tak (0242.HK; HK$5.19; PT HK$5.00; EW) .............................................................. 35
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Melco Int’l (0200.HK; HK$4.51; PT HK$4.40; EW)............................................................. 36
Galaxy Entertainment: Financial Summary................................................................................................................ 37
MPEL: Financial Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 38
Shun Tak: Financial Summary.................................................................................................................................... 39
Melco International: Financial Summary .................................................................................................................... 40

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