瑞士信贷：澳门博彩行业研究报告2009年9月

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Not the time to leave the table yet: Although we believe a bubble is in the
making, the upcoming spin-off listings of Wynn and LVS in Hong Kong,
along with a series of positive macro news flow, including accelerating YoY
growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR), relaxation of visa restriction and
implementation of junket commission rate cap, may drive share prices higher
in the near term. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on SJM, despite
the recent share price rally.
■
Sector ROIC set to decline sharply: The recent opening of MPEL’s City of
Dreams has dragged down industry ROIC and has raised our concerns on
overcapacity. With an additional capex of US$5.9 bn pouring in, we expect
industry ROIC to fall sharply from 23.3% in 2008 to 17.6% in 2010. On the
other hand, we doubt whether the above-mentioned policy changes will lead
to significant economic benefits for casino operators. Also, competition from
Singapore may actually have a higher-than-expected impact on the highroller
segment.
■
Investment strategies: With most Macau gaming stocks trading at
substantial premiums to their fundamental values, SJM is the only
investment choice with a 12-month investment horizon. We like the company
for its: 1) dominant and sustainable market share, 2) right market segment
focus, 3) superior ROIC, 4) improving profitability, 5) superior balance sheet
and 6) 53% valuation discount to peers. For other gaming stocks, investors
with high-risk appetite may engage in beta chasing and there may be some
pair-trading opportunities for other names.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 瑞士信贷 行业研究 Overcapacity 研究报告 信贷 瑞士 博彩 澳门