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Gaming
Macau Market Review; Expecting 14.2% Market
Growth in 2010; Raising Estimates and PTs for LVS
and MGM
Gaming
Joseph GreffAC
(1-212) 622-0548
joseph.greff@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Carlo Santarelli
(1-212) 622-1305
carlo.santarelli@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Daniel Yoon
(1-212) 622-1205
daniel.yoon@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Billy Ng, CFA
(852) 2800-8597
billy.hl.ng@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
See page 32 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
We continue to expect tremendous revenue and cash flow (EBITDA) growth out
of the Macau gaming market through 2010. Accordingly, we are raising our
operating estimates and price targets for LVS and MGM (each rated Overweight)
to reflect our revised growth expectations. While these stocks have had
tremendous runs of late given a number of positive developments in the Macau
market (easing travel restrictions, VIP commission caps helping lower opex,
anticipated valuation support related to LVS’s 4Q09 Hong Kong IPO) and
earnings expectations are certainly elevated for the 2H09 and 2010, we think the
near-term event path (market performance in the 4Q09, 3Q09 earnings beats) for
those with Macau exposure will be very positive and likely drive the shares
higher.
• We think Macau will benefit from the long-term growth of China. Macau is
already the world’s largest gaming market. Its gross gaming revenues reached
US$13.6B in 2008, more than double the US$6B generated on the Las Vegas
Strip. We believe Macau gaming will continue to grow strongly thanks to the
remarkable potential of the China market. Macau is the only city in greater
China that allows casino gambling. China’s growth story (real GDP CAGR at
10.8% from 2003 to 2008) has been well documented and we believe China
should remain one of the faster-growing countries in the next decade. Macau
will continue to benefit from the rapid expansion and increased affluence of the
Chinese consumer.
• Short-term growth should be fueled by travel restriction relaxations and
recovery of the economy. Recall Macau gaming revenue grew 46% in 2007
and 52% in the first eight months of 2008—thanks to new quality supply and
increased availability of credit to VIP patrons. Market revenue growth started to
slow in September 2008. Since that time and through June 2009, monthly
gaming revenue has dropped 9% year-over-year on average. We believe the
slowdown was a result of a combination of travel restrictions, flu impact, and
global economic slowdown.
• The turnaround started in July of this year when gaming revenue rose
3.1% year-over-year, the first year-over-year increase since November
2008, and the highest increase on an absolute basis since August 2008. Then
the market experienced gaming revenue growth of 17% year-over-year in
August 2009 (a record high of MOP 11.3 billion). We note that the comparisons
meaningfully ease starting in September and we expect the year-over-year
growth will be above 30% on average for the rest of the year (simply by
assuming a MOP 10 billion monthly gaming revenue level).

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