【出版时间及名称】:2010年1月澳门博彩行业研究报告
【作者】:瑞士信贷
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:34
【目录或简介】:
Better demand/supply balance in 2010. We believe 2010 will see a better
demand/supply balance, compared with 2009 and 2011, given the solid
gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth track, with only one relatively small
opening. As such, we see a good short-term trading opportunity ahead of the
massive openings in 2011.
■ But derating is likely to continue because of three macro headwinds.
We believe there are three factors weighing down the sector’s valuations in
the near term: 1) deceleration in GGR growth; 2) disappointment from the
ineffectiveness of the junket commission rate cap; and 3) fund-raising
activities in the pipeline.
■ Better opportunity in 2Q10. The share prices of Macau’s gaming stocks
have been insensitive to positive macro news flows since Wynn Macau’s
IPO. In our view, this is largely due to the series of fund-raising activities,
which has increased new equity supply. With potentially more fund-raising
activities ahead in the next few months, we believe the derating trend will
continue until either casino operators have completed or given up their fundraising
plans, which we believe will happen in 2Q10.
■ Top buy: SJM (0880.HK); top sell MPEL (MPEL.OQ). We continue to rate
SJM as our top buy idea, as we believe the opening of Oceanus in
December 2009 will help further consolidate its market leadership. We rate
MPEL as our top sell idea on the back of earnings disappointment, which is
likely to lead to fund-raising to cover its loan covenant. The opening of the
Theatre of Dreams is likely to weigh down its profitability further, in our view.