穆迪指亚太区主权评等可抵御经济风险

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穆迪指亚太区主权评等可抵御经济风险
（中文新闻稿为英文的翻译件。如有出入，以英文稿为准。）
新加坡，2010年1月25日 – 穆迪投资者服务公司在其刚发表的《亚太区评等展望 – 2010年1月》报告中表示，随着全球经济在欧美爆发金融危机后逐渐回稳，亚太区主权评等应可抵御其中所产生的经济风险。
亚太区在2009年的评等趋势多属正面，并无任何政府因为全球金融危机而遭降低评等。事实上，去年印尼及菲律宾的评等分别调升至Ba2及Ba3，而中国(A1)、香港特区(Aa2)及印度(仅就其Ba2本币政府评等而言)的评等展望均为正面。
三个国家的评等展望为负面。该三个国家分别为泰国(Baa1)、越南(Ba3)及斐济(B1)，在全球金融危机出现前一直陷于不稳和紧张的政治形势。
亚太区仍具深厚的发展潜力，主要原因是政府从财政及货币层面实施刺激经济计划，而资金充裕的银行体系可维持放贷，加上亚太区各国之间保持贸易，以及在90年代后期的亚洲金融危机后，有关国家已在外汇储备建立防御能力。
穆迪主权风险部高级副总裁及地区信用评等主任Tom Byrne表示：「此外，亚太区在全球金融危机后的复苏似乎与过往相若，而展望美国及欧盟的复苏则较为疲弱。」
Tom Byrne称：「虽然财政刺激计划在2009年是支持经济成长的关键因素，但大部分亚太区国家(不包括日本)在今年已经或将会逐步退出扩张性政策。」
他补充说：「除了日本外，亚太区其它政府的债务负担相对较小，过去几年所累积的债务属一般水平，此为支持亚太区内整体正面评等趋势的重要因素。另外，大部分国家的财政状况可接受利率在未来一年温和上升。」
穆迪注意到，中国是推动亚太区经济成长的主要国家，而日本则仍须设法解决长久以来的通缩及本国需求疲弱的问题。
日本的经济前景较为逊色，是亚太区最弱势的国家，但亚太区在2010年的GDP成长有望达到4.9%，较2009年增加1.2%，亦稍为高于1999年和2002年复苏期的水平。
因此，亚太区的成长前景较欧洲或拉丁美洲优胜。除了日本外，预期亚太区GDP成长在2010年更可达6.6%。经济基础稳固，是区内评等趋势正面的另一原因。
亚太区经济前景的风险包括对外贸易的二次衰退及通膨率回升。风险胃纳回升及大量资金流入将使抑制通涨成为挑战，为区内政府带来考验，亦可能驱使政府实行反向调整政策，提早退市。

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关键词：经济风险 亚太区 经济风 全球金融危机 亚洲金融危机 经济 风险 穆迪 主权 亚太区

Moody's says Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings demonstrating resiliency
Global Credit Research - 25 Jan 2010
Singapore, January 25, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service says in its just-published "Asia-Pacific Regional Outlook - January 2010" that regional sovereign ratings will likely remain resilient to economic risks coming to the foreground as the global economy recovers from the crisis that emanated from the US and Europe.
Regional rating trends were generally positive in 2009 with no downgrades originating exclusively from the global crisis. Indeed, Indonesia and the Philippines were upgraded to Ba2 and Ba3, respectively, last year, while A1 China, Aa2 Hong Kong, and India (its Ba2 local currency government rating only) have positive outlooks.
The three countries with negative outlooks -- Baa1 Thailand, Ba3 Vietnam and B1 Fiji -- have long-standing underlying imbalances or political tensions which precede the onset of the global crisis.
Growth potential in the Asia-Pacific remains robust, benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus programs, liquid banking systems capable of extending credit, intra-regional trade, and foreign exchange reserve defenses built up after the Asian financial crisis of late 1990s.
"Moreover, recovery from the global crisis is appearing similar to previous recovery periods, in contrast to prospects for a sluggish rebound in the US and EU," says Tom Byrne, a Senior Vice President and Regional Credit Officer in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.
"Despite the crucial role played by fiscal stimulus programs in supporting growth in 2009, most Asia-Pacific countries (ex-Japan) have begun or will likely start to wind down expansionary policies this year," says Byrne.
"Because of relatively less encumbered public finances in the region, with the exception of Japan, the build-up in debt over the past couple of years has been relatively moderate, a key factor in supporting the generally positive trend in ratings in Asia-Pacific," says Byrne. "Also, most countries' fiscal positions can absorb a moderate rise in interest rates in the year ahead," Byrne added.
Moody's notes that China is playing a lead role as a driver of growth in the region, while Japan sits on the sideline as it struggles to overcome stubborn deflation and lackluster domestic demand.
Despite the subdued outlook for Japan, the weakest in the region, Asia-Pacific GDP growth may reach 4.9 percent in 2010, up from 1.2 percent in 2009 and slightly stronger than previous recovery periods in 1999 and 2002.
Accordingly, the growth outlook for Asia-Pacific is more robust than that of Europe or Latin America. Excluding Japan, regional GDP growth is expected to be even stronger at 6.6 percent in 2010. This economic robustness has also underpinned the relatively positive rating trend in the region.
Risks to the economic outlook for the region include a relapse in the recovery in external trade and a rise in inflation. The latter could prove challenging to regional policymakers with the return of risk appetite and strong capital inflows, and could prompt more urgent exit strategies from counter-cyclical policies.
In addition, an endogenous risk to the regional outlook is an asset bubble which careens into a boom-bust cycle in China. Moody's central scenario, however, is that regional governments and monetary authorities will maintain a grip on policy, squeezing as tight as needed to prevent an inflationary destabilization.
The January 2010 edition of the "Asia-Pacific Sovereign Outlook" is the first of a regular publication explaining Moody's views and perspectives on sovereign ratings in the region. It is one of three regional outlooks being published by Moody's Sovereign Risk Group this month, the other two covering Latin America and Europe.
Two other regular reports further detail Moody's perspectives on sovereign ratings, the quarterly "Aaa Sovereign Monitor", which focuses on the highest-rated sovereigns, and the annual "Sovereign Risk Outlook", which provides a year-end review of global sovereign ratings activity and perspectives for the coming year. The latest editions of these reports were published in December 2009.
The "Asia-Pacific Sovereign Outlook" and all other sovereign reports can be found at www.moodys.com