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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月英国电力行业研究报告
【作者】：法国兴业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Theme The utilities market is highly complex, even in the UK, where regulated businesses
(gas and electricity transmission, electricity and water distribution) coexist alongside
liberalised markets (electricity production, waste management). The market is served by both
listed companies (see below) and private operators (e.g., Thames Water, Biffa). We fail to see
value in the longer term (around five years) as most of the listed companies are tightly
regulated and post low growth, the only blessing being relatively high dividend yields (which
are currently attracting a lot of investor interest). We do not see any high risks in the short
term, but it is clear, in our view, that rising interest rates may have a negative impact on net
profit and could limit dividend growth.
􀁑 Sector recommendation We would advise being very cautious on UK stocks. We mainly
rate the stocks at Sell (Scottish & Southern Energy, United Utilities, Severn Trent).
􀁑 Main stock picks We rate Centrica at Buy as we believe it should benefit from the flexibility
of its business model (“make or buy”) in a volatile environment for energy spot prices. Our
least preferred stock is Scottish and Southern Energy as we think the company could tap the
market in order to buy the networks slated for sale by EDF Energy (if the sale ever takes
place). Most of the large European companies (Iberdrola, EDF, RWE and E.ON) operate in the
UK market and compete against each other, even though we expect several consortiums to
emerge in response to the £200bn in investments that Ofgem considers is necessary. We are
initiating coverage today at Sell on Severn Trent (see report) and United Utilities (see report).
􀁑 Catalysts The next regulatory review will be on transmission (TPCR5), Ofgem having
already launched the process to review these regulations. This will be followed by the gas
distribution price review (2008-13). Ofgem has started a process to review the current market
structure in light of some key issues such as CO2 emissions, security of supply, and cost of
energy. This might bring far-reaching changes to the market (the greatest change could
possibly be the implementation of a single buyer market) and creates more uncertainty at a
time when oversupply is a reality and companies are facing pressure to reduce customer bills
(economic crisis). The outcome of the “Discovery Project” should be implemented by
2012/13 at the latest.
Contents
3 Sector anatomy – presentation of the sector
3 Pictures of the products sold
4 Sector anatomy – performance and valuation
4 Focus on two main changes foreseen in the industry
5 Sector – leading indicators
6 Investment summary
6 Key issues
11 Energy market overview
11 Electricity
18 CO2 component
23 Imports/exports
24 A hub that could be at risk
25 Renewable energy policy
27 Water market
27 Investment
28 Ofwat regulation
31 21 areas to cover the market in England and Wales
32 Regulated asset value
33 Waste market
34 The waste market
34 Landfill tax
35 Waste quantity production
36 Household waste
37 Municipal waste
37 Industrial and commercial waste
38 UK vs. Europe
39 Appendices
40 Glossary
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