Catalyzing strategic transformation to a low-carbon economy: A CCS roadmap for China
1. General background
1.1. Three hard truths
The energy and climate challenge facing China remains as
daunting as ever, and it is shaped by three hard truths.
The first hard truth is that China’s unquenched thirst for oil
will continue to grow. Since the ‘‘Reform and Opening Up’’ in
1978, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) and energyconsump-
tion have increased by 16 and 5 times, respectively (NBS, 2007,
2009). China mainly relies on itself to ensure primary energy
supply. In 2005, China’s energy self-sufficiency ratio was 96%, 30
percentage points higher than the average for Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (NBS,
2008). With respect to oil supply, however, China is becoming
highly dependent on foreign supplies. China’s consumption of oil
is projected to rise dramatically during the next two decades. The
widening gap between China’s oil supplyand demand means that
China will be increasingly reliant on imported oil. As shown in
Fig.1,netoilimportsareprojectedtoincreasemarkedlyto5.1mb/
d in 2010, 7.1mb/d in 2015 and 13.1mb/d in 2030, just over
the level of US oil dependence in 2009. China’s oil import
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