2010年4月印度IT行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度IT行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：77
        【目录或简介】：
Picking the next set of winners
As it becomes increasingly accepted that the Indian IT services sector is going through a
phase of strong revival in demand, there is growing interest in finding the right investment
ideas to ride this growth wave. The large caps have already been rerated. Mid-cap
investment is a tricky ball game, where one needs to tread with caution. That does not
mean that mid-cap IT does not give superior stock returns – mid caps outperformed large
caps by 120%-plus in the year following June 2006 at the height of growth. To help chose
stocks wisely, we develop a comprehensive five-factor framework to evaluate companies
and to come up with likely stock ideas in the current up-cycle of demand.
In this report, we also add coverage on Infotech, Polaris (both OUTPERFORM), Mphasis
(NEUTRAL) and Hexaware (UNDERPERFORM), to add to our existing coverage of
MindTree, Patni (both OUTPERFORM) and TechMahindra (UNDERPERFORM).
Rewards await the keen eye
The mid-cap Indian IT services space is not an easy investment area. In general, growth
rates are lower (by more than 250 bp on a QoQ basis) and more volatile than large caps.
Smaller companies work on lower margins ( on average 1,000 bp lower than large caps).
Further, smaller IT services companies could be increasingly marginalised given the new
trends in the sector.
However, this does not mean that the entire mid-cap IT space should be painted with the
same pessimistic brush. The previous growth cycle showed that select mid-cap names
outperformed the industry by 6 p.p. on CAGR and by 700 bp on margin improvement. In
particular, mid caps have higher operating leverage and could benefit from growth in submarkets
where they have strengths.
Building a fundamental framework to rank mid caps
In developing this framework, we keep in mind various factors that investors look for in
deciding investments in this space – like growth (we study exposure to high growth areas
like BFSI, engineering/R&D, emerging markets), margin upside, business risks from
customer concentration, buy-out potential and the management outlook. We have tried to
keep our rankings objective to the extent possible (only 8% of the final score is decided by
subjective factors). The top companies on our framework are Infotech, MindTree and
Oracle Financial Services Software, in that order.
Prefer MindTree, Infotech and Polaris among rated
mid caps
While obtaining a good comparison of companies on fundamental drivers is essential, it
stops short of suggesting which stocks are good investments at current prices. For this
analysis to be complete, we have to look at how companies fare on valuations. We have
devised a simple score card on trailing valuations for the companies under study, and
paired the rankings thus obtained with our rankings on fundamentals. The stocks that look
attractive on both fundamentals and valuations are: Nucelus, KPIT, Polaris and 3i. The
companies which score low on both counts are Prithvi, Mphasis and Firstsource.
Among the rated companies, we retain OUTPERFORM on MindTree and Patni, and
UNDERPERFORM on Tech Mahindra. With this report, we initiate coverage on Polaris,
Infotech (both OUTPERFORM), Mphasis (NEUTRAL) and Hexaware (UNDERPERFORM).

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