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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚太证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
expects three major drivers in the Korea equity market moving into 2H10.
First, money outflows from domestic equity funds should slow down due to
the real interest rate being close to or below 0%, and the lack of other
appealing investment opportunities at least in the near term. Second, after
the regional election in June this year, the government is likely to loosen its
price control; hence, consumer and financial sectors’ margins could
improve. Lastly, given the market consensus view of a stronger Won by
end-2010, upside momentum is likely to be higher in sectors related to
domestic consumption. Nevertheless, we still expect the share prices of
large-cap exporters with a well-diversified consumer base and global
competitiveness to stay robust in 2010.
• The 1Q10 earnings season kicked off with Shinsegae and POSCO during
the second week of April 2010: J.P. Morgan expects Korean companies
under our coverage universe to report a 29.9% Q/Q growth in 1Q10 (vs. the
Bloomberg estimate of 28.5% Q/Q). On a year-on-year basis, Korean
companies are likely to have posted more than a 400% gain compared to
1Q09, when the global economy hit the bottom of the cycle. 1Q10’s solid
earnings growth was mainly due to: 1) healthy global economic expansion
despite some argument in the market that global growth could slow when the
impact of policy support fades; 2) Korean exporters’ global competitiveness
and being one of the biggest beneficiaries of global demand recovery; and 3)
the financial sector’s ongoing reduction in credit cost and divestment of
legacy equity stake holdings.
• Recommendations: We remain positive on auto makers, tech companies
with global competitiveness, large-cap banks, and consumer stocks, while
we selectively prefer construction companies with large offshore project
exposure. We revamp our model portfolio (see page 15 for more details).
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