2010年4月澳门博彩行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月澳门博彩行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：73
        【目录或简介】：

We retain our Attractive view on the Macau Gaming
& Property industry: The industry remains a proxy for
sustainable Chinese economic recovery, growing
consumer spending power, and RMB revaluation
potential. Supply growth is also limited over the next
several quarters. However, we wish to highlight that
risks are rising.
We agree with consensus on:
1) Strong gaming revenue growth: We project 30%
(earlier 22% YoY) and 16% in 2010 and 2011,
driven by strong growth of 57% YoY in 1Q2010 and
economic recovery in China.
2) Supply growth curtailed: Macau’s government is
proposing a cap on the number of gaming tables.
This might restrict table growth to 4-5% per annum;
in view of our expectation of 15% revenue growth
p.a., that would drive margin for operators higher.
Risks that we believe consensus is missing:
1) Growth in the last six months has been driven by
VIP rolling chips (up 79% YoY in 1Q10), which could
attract attention from the Chinese government.
2) Tough YoY comparisons starting August 2010 and
declining Chinese property prices could be drags on
stock performance.
3) Valuation is not compelling any more, considering
returns are falling. The group is trading at 12.6x
2010e and 10.1x 2011e EV/EBITDA.
Stock picks: Only SJM and Shun Tak provide
meaningful upside. Other OW-rated stocks are Wynn
and Galaxy. We have upgraded Sands China to EW and
downgraded MPEL to EW.

Contents
Investment Case............................................................................................................................................................. 3
Valuations Reasonable, but Not Without Risks ........................................................................................................... 6
Theme #1: Who Leads in 1Q2010?............................................................................................................................. 10
Theme #2: What Drives Stocks?................................................................................................................................. 11
Theme #3: What Drives EBITDA Margin? ................................................................................................................... 13
Theme #4: How Profitable Are the New Casinos? ..................................................................................................... 14
Theme #5: VIP vs. Mass – Which Do We Prefer?....................................................................................................... 15
Theme #6: Property Is a Late-Cycle Play.................................................................................................................... 17
Stock Ideas ................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Shun Tak (0880.HK, HK$4.62, OW, PT HK$6.60) – Do Not Ignore Property ............................................................ 20
SJM Holdings (0880.HK, HK$5.23, OW, PT HK$6.20) – Narrowing Discount.......................................................... 26
Wynn Macau (1128.HK, HK$12.18, OW, PT HK$13.00) – Boring but Solid .............................................................. 31
Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK, HK$3.92, OW, PT HK$4.60) – Strong 4Q09 and Fully Funded Cotai Project ... 37
Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (MPEL.O, US$5.05, EW, PT US$5.20)............................................................ 42
Melco International (0200.HK, HK$3.46, OW, PT HK$3.80) ....................................................................................... 47
Sands China Ltd. (1928.HK, HK$12.10, EW, PT HK$12.00) ....................................................................................... 50
Risk-Reward Analysis and Financial Summaries ......................................................................................................55
Shun Tak (0242.HK, HK$4.62, OW, PT HK$6.60) ........................................................................................................ 56
SJM (0880.HK, HK$5.23, OW, PT HK$6.20)................................................................................................................. 57
Wynn Macau (1128.HK; HK$12.18; OW; PT HK$13.00).............................................................................................. 58
Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK, HK$3.92, OW, PT HK$4.60) ................................................................................... 59
Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL.O, US$5.05, EW, PT US$5.20).......................................................................... 60
Melco Int’l (0200.HK, HK$3.46, EW, PT HK$3.80) ....................................................................................................... 61
Sands China Ltd. (1928.HK; HK$12.10; EW; PT HK$12.00)....................................................................................... 62

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