2010年4月美国证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：84
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
US Equity Strategy Recent Publications......................................................................................................... 2
Shift to “Remain Constructive, Ready to Buy the Dips”................................. 5
Still favor Consumer Discretionary, but Later-Cycle....................................... 6
Three Themes on LATER-STAGE Consumer Discretionary......................................................................... 6
Theme: Households should respond to Credit easing and HPA.................... 7
Those Households with NEGATIVE EQUITY are only 8% of Total Households ........................................ 8
Households can LEVERAGE rise in Home Prices......................................................................................... 9
Theme: Household debt overstated by HF loans and borrowings............... 11
Theme: Minorities fared better in this cycle and improving…. .................... 12
Upside for Minorities as employment improves, typically lagging national data......................................... 13
Theme: 55-plus workers fared worse but stabilizing…................................. 14
55-plus workers saw the largest ever increase in Unemployment vs. any prior recession............................ 15
Market Strategy: Focus on Late-Cycle Consumer Cyclicals ........................ 16
What are Late-Cycle Consumer Cyclicals? Anything that has lagged.......................................................... 17
Laggard Consumer Cyclicals less liked by Street analysts ........................................................................... 19
Laggards have trailed since Fall 2009........................................................................................................... 20
Laggards also have relatively higher Short Interest ...................................................................................... 20
Trade Idea: 25 Late-Cycle Consumer Stocks................................................. 21
Update on Target Price Stocks Trade Idea.................................................................................................... 25
Update on Financials Stocks Trade Idea....................................................................................................... 26
Update on Pro-Cyclical Stocks Trade Idea ................................................................................................... 27
Sector Comparative.......................................................................................... 31
Which Industries Score the Best? Based on Target Prices and Buzz-o-Meter.............................................. 32
S&P 500: Snapshot of Industry Market Capitalization................................................................................. 33
Price Performance – S&P 500 ...................................................................................................................... 34
Price vs. 50-Day Moving Avg – S&P 500.................................................................................................... 36
Monthly Sales Revision – S&P 500.............................................................................................................. 38
Relative Sales Momentum – S&P 500.......................................................................................................... 40
Monthly Earnings Revision – S&P 500........................................................................................................ 42
Relative Earnings Momentum – S&P 500.................................................................................................... 44
JULI Spreads – All Industries...................................................................................................................... 46
First Call Mean Rating – S&P 500 ............................................................................................................... 48
Short Interest – S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 50
ETF Fund Flows .......................................................................................................................................... 52
Price/10-Yr EPS – S&P 500 ......................................................................................................................... 54
Sector Analysis: Industries and Stocks ......................................................... 57
Energy.......................................................................................................................................................... 58
Materials ...................................................................................................................................................... 60
Industrials .................................................................................................................................................... 62
Technology .................................................................................................................................................. 64
Staples.......................................................................................................................................................... 66
Healthcare .................................................................................................................................................... 68
Telecom ....................................................................................................................................................... 70
Utilities ........................................................................................................................................................ 72
Financials..................................................................................................................................................... 74
Discretionary................................................................................................................................................ 76
Buzz-o-Meter Methodology......................................................................................................................... 79
Composite Score Methodology.................................................................................................................... 80

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