【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月南美证券市场投资策略
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:PPT
【页数】:75
【目录或简介】:
Table of Contents
1. What’s new? 4
2. Top Trade Ideas 5
3. Equity Strategy 6
4. Stock Fundamentals 27
5. Equity Guide 36
6. Fixed Income & Foreign Exchange Rate Strategy 48
7. Economics 56
What’s new?
Equity Strategy
In the Andean region, we continue to recommend Peru over Colombia because of political uncertainty.
However, our favorite stock in Peru is now Buenaventura as a hedge to rising global sovereign risk.
Meanwhile, we still like Cemargos in Colombia because of its dominant position in the local cement sector;
We have revised our year-end targets for Brazil and Mexico…
– Mexico: our new Bolsa target is 40,000-pts (up from 38,000) and it reflects stronger-than-expected
earnings growth (+35% and +18% for 2010e and 2011e) and a slightly higher P/E multiple (15.1x).
– Brazil: our new Bovespa target is 80,000-pts (down from 85,000) and it reflects a stronger FX forecast
(1.65BRL/USD) and slightly lower P/E multiple (13.4x);
…and we now favor Mexico over Brazil in the short-term – even though we remain O/W both markets
– In Mexico, equities should continue to benefit from stronger-than-expected U.S. economic figures;
– In Brazil, both commodities and domestics are facing headwinds. Commodities are suffering because of
a) a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy and b) increasing global sovereign risk (i.e. Europe).
Meanwhile, domestics continue to struggle with the likely start of a local monetary tightening cycle.
We reckon that we may be late in this country rotation – Mexico is up 10.6% while Brazil is down 0.7%
year-to-date – but things can get uglier…
–We see limited upside for Brazilian stocks in the next 1-2 months, while its high beta status should lead
to underperformance if the global scenario deteriorates further;
– In addition, Mexican equities continue to receive support from a strong recovery north-of-the-border,
and they should be more defensive if risk aversion spikes higher.