2010年4月南美证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月南美证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：128
        【目录或简介】：
Key trades, risks and opportunities
Frederick Searby, CFA
Strategist
(1) 212 250-6432
frederick.searby@db.com
Francisco Schumacher
Strategist
(+54) 11 4590-2971
francisco.schumacher@db.com
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced
from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject
companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND
ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Year-end 2010 DDM Valuation at current CDS
rates
Market
Bloomberg
Ticker
DDM
Valuation
Return
Potential*
Brazil MXBR 4,228 20%
Mexico MXMX 6,369 15%
Chile MXCL 2,117 4%
Colombia MXCO 815 -3%
Peru MXPE 1,590 31%
Latam MXLA 4,202 15%
Argentina MXAR 1,908 -15%
Source: Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank estimates
(*) Year-end index target implied upside potential with respect
to April 16th prices, plus dividend yield.
Global Markets Research Company
Take a cautious stance in the short term on Latam equities
We believe the Latam re-rating process will continue medium term, but at a more
measured pace. Hence, we forecast 15% upside in 2010 for Latam equities as a
result of robust 27% EPS growth in US dollar terms. However, given the busy
election cycle, our macro framework with deteriorating inflation expectations and
rising rates in Brazil, rising Fed funds, and the withdrawal of large fiscal and
monetary stimulus in the incipient stages worldwide, and importantly in China, we
tactically take a cautious stance on Latin American equities. Indeed, a brief bout of
Latam equities’ underperformance relative to structurally challenged developed
markets may be in the cards.
Underweight bellwether Brazil
We would underweight bellwether Brazil in the short term, though it is a
compelling market in the medium term and offers an attractive 20% upside
potential in 2010. Several transitory factors may keep Brazilian equities on a short
leash over the next several months, including an approximately USD 50 billion
pipeline in equity offerings, concerns over increasing government intervention,
bellwether Petrobras' recapitalization being stuck in limbo, and the onset of
campaigning for presidential elections. Several lights are flashing yellow, including
a recent downtrend in Latam equity fund flows, relative underperformance of
Brazilian financials, flagging IPOs, and deteriorating inflation expectations.
Underperformance of Asian property shares may presage a slowing of the
commodity boom. Nevertheless, we would use corrections to build positions in
long-term winners in Brazil, as volatility owing to election jitters may afford
attractive entry points. In our strategy focus list, we include BM&FBovespa,
Odontoprev, Cielo, and Natura. We generally favor relatively cheap defensives.
Overweight Mexico, underweight defensive Colombia and Chile due to rich
valuations
We would overweight Mexico due to its stable nature and levered upside to an
above-consensus US recovery. Though our models indicate a 15% return for the
MSCI Mexico index, we believe it is a better risk-adjusted investment than Brazil
short-term. We recommend investors rotate from Mexico’s pro-cyclicals into its
defensive names, as they offer better value at this juncture. We favor names that
benefit from peso appreciation: Televisa and Grupo Modelo are on our focus list.
Though we advocate a tactically cautious posture short term, we would
paradoxically underweight defensive markets Chile and Colombia, as our analyses
show limited upside potential, and perhaps some downside risk. We would source
beta and take a pro-cyclical position in Peru, where the MSCI Peru index offers
31% upside potential. We like Credicorp.

Table of Contents
Executive summary ......................................................................... 10
Valuation ....................................................................................................................11
Country/sector valuation............................................................................................13
Latam playbook summary .............................................................. 15
Regional overview .....................................................................................................15
Yellow flags and risks ................................................................................................18
Targets: Peru, Brazil, and Mexico offer 31%, 20% and 15% upside
potential ........................................................................................... 20
Our valuations suggest limited upside for Chile and Colombia.................................20
Implications of our targets under other valuation metrics.........................................22
Sector valuation multiples for each country compared with regional and global
means ........................................................................................................................27
Strategy focus list............................................................................ 29
Country overview ............................................................................ 33
Investment case ........................................................................................................33
Brazil ................................................................................................. 35
Stance on the market ................................................................................................36
Sectors to overweight ...............................................................................................38
Sectors to market weight ..........................................................................................39
Sectors to underweight .............................................................................................39
The bull case for Brazilian equity returns...................................................................41
The bear case for Brazilian equity returns .................................................................43
Near-term catalysts....................................................................................................44
Brazil – Macroeconomic outlook ...............................................................................46
Macro view ................................................................................................................46
Mexico .............................................................................................. 50
Stance on the market ................................................................................................51
Sectors to overweight ...............................................................................................52
Sectors to underweight .............................................................................................52
The bull case for Mexican equity returns ..................................................................53
The bear case for Mexican equity returns .................................................................54
Near-term catalysts....................................................................................................54
Mexico – Macroeconomic outlook ............................................................................56
Macro view ................................................................................................................56

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关键词：投资策略报告 证券市场 投资策略 市场投资 策略报告 投资 证券 南美

Table of Contents (Cont'd)
Chile.................................................................................................. 60
Stance on the Market ................................................................................................61
The bull case for Chilean equity returns ....................................................................62
The bear case for Chilean equity returns...................................................................64
Chile – Macroeconomic outlook ................................................................................65
Macro view ................................................................................................................65
Colombia .......................................................................................... 67
Stance on the market ................................................................................................68
The bull case for Colombian equity returns...............................................................68
The bear case for Colombian equity returns .............................................................69
Colombia – Macroeconomic outlook.........................................................................70
Macro view ................................................................................................................70
Peru................................................................................................... 72
Stance on the market ................................................................................................73
The bull case for Peruvian equity returns ..................................................................74
The bear case for Peruvian equity returns.................................................................74
Peru – Macroeconomic outlook.................................................................................75
Macro view ................................................................................................................75
Argentina.......................................................................................... 77
Stance on the market ................................................................................................77
Off-index stock picking ..............................................................................................78
The bull case for Argentine equity returns ................................................................78
The bear case for Argentine equity returns ...............................................................79
The playbook.................................................................................... 80
Five white swans lurking in front of investors that could threaten Latin American
share prices ...............................................................................................................81
If China sneezes, Brazil and much of Latin America may get a cold.........................82
All roads lead to the US dollar ...................................................................................83
Flows into Latin American equity funds have begun to peter out in 2010 ...............84
Latam delivered stellar returns over the last decade ................................................86
Overall, Latam trades modestly rich relative to global emerging markets universe
but slightly cheap relative to the US..........................................................................88
Highest earnings volatility in the world .....................................................................91
Equity vs. bonds: how are equities standing compared to bonds in the region? .....93
One common myth: strong GDP growth translates into strong market returns ......95
Table of Contents (Cont'd)
Busy elections cycle throughout the region..............................................................97
The holy grail of international investing: uncorrelated returns – Where can we find
them in Latin America?..............................................................................................99
Latin American corporates boast strongest balance sheets globally......................100
Asia should materially outperform Latin America if commodity prices fall or stabilize
................................................................................................................................101
"Geography as destiny" ............................................................................................102
FX sensitivities of markets.......................................................................................104
A review of our baskets ................................................................ 105
M&A starting out strong in Latin America in 2010..................................................105
We also recommend investors buy our agriculture/arable land scarcity basket.....107
Tracking past performance of our baskets ..............................................................108
Returning capital ......................................................................................................109
Low analyst rating....................................................................................................110
Winners or laggards?...............................................................................................111
Long-tailed momentum plays..................................................................................113
Controversial but profitable .....................................................................................114
Ripe for cash return .................................................................................................115
Defensive Basket.....................................................................................................116
High short interest ratio ...........................................................................................117
Deep Value Baskets.................................................................................................118
EM exposure through developed markets multinationals.......................................119

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