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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月新加坡博彩行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：43
【目录或简介】：
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought-Leading
Deutsche Bank Company Research's Investment Policy Committee has deemed
this work F.I.T.T. for our clients seeking differentiated ideas. In this report, we
collected two days of gaming and visitation data at Singapore's first casino,
Resorts World Sentosa (RWS). Contrary to market expectations, our findings
suggest that Singapore's US$3.0bn gaming market size projection has upside risk.
We upgrade Genting Singapore to Buy. At 10x 2011E EV/EBITDA, the valuation
has fallen to a reasonable level.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
FITT Research
Top picks
Genting Singapore PLC (GENS.SI),SGD0.87 Buy
Genting Bhd (GENT.KL),MYR6.73 Buy
Companies featured
Genting Singapore PLC (GENS.SI),SGD0.87 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 47.9 19.8
EV/EBITDA (x) – 17.7 10.3
Price/book (x) 3.7 2.2 2.0
Genting Malaysia BHD (GENM.KL),MYR2.86 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 10.9 13.1 12.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9 5.5 4.9
Price/book (x) 1.6 1.5 1.4
Genting Bhd (GENT.KL),MYR6.73 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 20.2 15.6 12.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 6.7 5.2
Price/book (x) 2.0 1.6 1.5
Recommendation changes
New Old
Genting Singapore Buy Hold
Target price changes
New Old
Genting Singapore (SGD) 1.00 0.905
Genting Malaysia (MYR) 3.11 2.90
Genting Bhd (MYR) 8.28 7.68
Upcoming events Date
DB Access Asia Conference, Singapore
10-13 May 2010
Fundamental: Singapore can support US$3.0bn gaming market or more
Deutsche Bank’s proprietary gaming realty check reinforces our gaming market
estimates of US$3.0bn. Based on the current run rate, we estimate that the twomonth-
old Singapore gaming market is already running at an US$2.2-2.4bn
annualized market size. The market should grow further following Marina Bay
Sands’ (MBS) recent opening. A US$3.0bn market would put Singapore at onefifth
that of Macau, half that of Las Vegas and twice that of Malaysia.
Industry: Little cross-border cannibalization; duopoly market complementary
We expect the two world-class integrated casino resorts to help expand the 2010
regional gaming market to US$25bn from US$20bn in 2009. We do not believe
there is a significant cannibalization threat. Indeed, Macau’s gaming revenue
surged 57% YoY in 1Q to US$5.1bn, while neighboring markets like Malaysia
continue to grow so far, albeit at a slower pace.
Thematic: Riding regional economic recovery and tourism boom
Marina Bay Sands (MBS) should complement Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) and
enhance Singapore’s appeal as a tourist destination. We believe the under-served
regional market is large enough for both operators to compete cordially. With the
Asian economy continuing to grow more quickly than expected, the risk to our
Singapore gaming market projections is increasingly on the upside. Like the early
days of Macau, the opening of the new casino should increase visitation and grow
the gaming market in Singapore.
Thought-Leading: Deutsche Bank’s proprietary gaming reality check
Deutsche Bank’s gaming reality check provides three key observations. Based on
the current run rate, Singapore’s US$3.0bn gaming market is achievable, and risk
has tilted to the upside should both operators ramp up quickly. Upside surprises
could come from the VIP gaming market, which appears to be larger than
expected even without the presence of junket operators. This underscores Asia’s
large appetite for gambling, especially the under-served premium market segment
and fast-growing HNWI wealth. On the other hand, local visitation appears to be
smaller than projected, suggesting that the S$100 daily levy may be effective in
curtailing local visitation. Given the initial operational teething problems, the casino
is running at a low efficiency level. We expect to see continuous growth in the
overall market size as both casinos ramp up their operations.
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Singapore casino gaming market – bigger than you thought....................................................3
Deutsche Bank’s gaming reality check .....................................................................................3
Deutsche Bank upgrades Genting Singapore to Buy ................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Gaming reality check......................................................................... 6
Deutsche Bank’s proprietary casino study................................................................................6
Table capacity and game types – operating at half its capacity ................................................6
Average visits of 28,000 a day, dominated by foreigners .........................................................7
We estimate mass gaming revenue of S$3.2-4.1m a day ........................................................8
Market in the making ...................................................................... 11
US$3.0bn Singapore gaming market ......................................................................................11
Top-down approach suggests upside to market size..............................................................14
Singapore market needs time to ramp up...............................................................................15
Right timing, riding on regional economic recovery................................................................16
New property effect ........................................................................ 18
MBS opened on 27 April with roughly 420 tables...................................................................18
Efficiency gain to mitigate cannibalization effect ....................................................................19
Opening effect in Macau.........................................................................................................19
Stock call and valuation.................................................................. 21
Deutsche Bank upgrades Genting Singapore to Buy ..............................................................21
Genting Singapore PLC................................................................... 26
Genting Malaysia BHD .................................................................... 28
Genting Bhd ..................................................................................... 30
Appendix A – Deutsche Bank’s proprietary gaming study .......... 32
Four areas of study .................................................................................................................32
Methodology..........................................................................................................................33
Statistical approach.................................................................................................................34
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