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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月东南亚证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Economic momentum in ASEAN 5 continues to surprise on the upside
Singapore is expected to exceed 9% (the sharpest rebound in Asia) after
surprising with record qoq growth in 1Q. Malaysia’s currency has been one of the
strongest in Asia, thanks to a sharp rebound in the economy and its tight
correlation to the renminbi. Macro trends in the Philippines have surprised even
the biggest bears, with remittances proving to be resilient through the downturn.
Economic indicators have also been positive in Thailand, despite the recent unrest.
Economically, ASEAN looks to be in good shape.
Our pecking order: Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand
Indonesia remains our top ASEAN market. Heriyanto, our strategist for Indonesia,
tells us that foreign net inflows have been strong but largely dominated by bonds
(not equities). Domestic liquidity has lifted but mutual and pension funds are still
under-invested. Valuations at 15.3x PER is still not excessive given 24% p.a.
growth. The Indonesia growth ‘story’ looks to be far from over. Often ignored,
Philippines’ bullish story is slowly revealing itself. Strong remittances (11% of
GDP) should support consumption, property investment and the peso. A president
with a strong mandate would drive confidence, according to Rafael Garchitorena,
While Singapore’s economic momentum may well decelerate from 2Q, Greg tells
us that EPS upgrades have lagged and that strong balance sheets and easing
credit market should faciliate M&A activity. Malaysia’s transformation under Prime
Minister Najib will likely need time to deliver real change. Meanwhile, the ringgit
has outperformed in an expensive market. Ongoing political tension in Thailand
overshadows upward momentum in consumption and economic lift.
ASEAN to continue to outperform; stay invested
ASEAN currencies are likely to stay firm, growth remains intact, consumption is
rising and valuations are still below that of historical averages. Read more as
Deutsche Bank’s ASEAN strategists discuss their views, excitement and fears
about their markets.
Top Buys in ASEAN: BNI & Indocement (Indonesia), KLK & Genting
(Malaysia), Aboitiz Power & Semirara (Philippines), Sembcorp Industries &
Singapore Air (Singapore), and Kasikorn Bank & Banpu (Thailand).
Table of Contents
The ASEAN team list ......................................................................... 3
ASEAN valuation and picks .............................................................. 4
Indonesia: how bullish or concerned should one be?.................... 7
Five key themes for the market ................................................................................................7
Five charts you must look at .....................................................................................................8
Five points for discussion regarding sector preferences, market valuations and direction.......9
Five stocks to own in this market .............................................................................................9
Five questions and answers....................................................................................................11
Malaysia: At a crossroads ............................................................... 13
Five key themes for the market ..............................................................................................13
Five charts you must look at ...................................................................................................14
Five points for discussion regarding sector preferences, market valuations and direction.....15
Five stocks to own in this market ...........................................................................................16
Five questions and answers....................................................................................................17
Philippines: Decisions, decisions ................................................... 20
Five key themes for the market ..............................................................................................20
Five charts you must look at ...................................................................................................22
Five points for discussion regarding sector preferences, market valuations and direction.....23
Five stocks to own in this market ...........................................................................................23
Five questions and answers....................................................................................................25
Singapore: Shifting focus ............................................................... 27
Five key themes for the market ..............................................................................................27
Five charts you must look at ...................................................................................................28
Five points for discussion regarding sector preferences, market valuations and direction.....29
Five stocks to own in this market ...........................................................................................29
Five questions and answers....................................................................................................31
Thailand: Tension looms................................................................. 34
Five key themes for the market ..............................................................................................34
Five charts you must look at ...................................................................................................36
Five points for discussion regarding sector preferences, market valuations and direction.....37
Five stocks to own in Thai market...........................................................................................37
Five questions and answers....................................................................................................40
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