2010年5月南非证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月南非证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：

Lofty ratings but keep the earnings recovery in mind
The last round of results reported has incorporated the worst of the recession into
the earnings base for the SA equity market. Earnings have contracted c.32% from
the peak in nominal terms. While ratings are undeniably looking stretched against
this earnings base, it seems set to unwind very rapidly over the next two years
from its current lofty historical P/E of c.18x to c.8.8x (vs a 20 year average of
14.2x). In aggregate, our projections prove surprisingly resilient to alternative
scenarios for commodities and the exchange rate. Despite maintaining an
expanded equity risk premium, our top down model suggests a total return of
23% from current levels over the next 12 months.
Earnings sensitivity to currency and commodity views
Rerunning our forecasts firstly applying spot exchange rates and secondly
overlaying spot commodity prices produced a reassuring result. For the most part,
our weakening exchange rate profile is hedged by commodity prices that are
forecast to drift lower in the short to medium-term. While the strong relationship
between exchange rate and commodity price trends (particularly in more recent
years) counts against it happening, assuming only the rand remains stable, lifts the
2-yr exit multiple for the market to 9.6x. Overlaying the assumption that
commodity prices remain stable too brought the 2-yr exit PE back to 8.8x
(coincidentally). At least from these two usual suspects for earnings misses, our
projections prove harder to debunk than we expected.
While acknowledging macro risks, we remain overweight Resources
The significant unwind of ratings projected over the next 24 months is driven
primarily by the Resources sector. However, current Resource sector ratings,
coupled with concerns in particular with how further measures taken by Chinese
authorities to rein in the Chinese economy may impact commodity pricing, likely
explain investor caution at the moment. Elsewhere, we believe the earnings
recovery in prospect is largely discounted into ratings. Our analysis suggesting the
earnings recovery in Resources may be less fragile than feared (we already have a
declining price profile for most commodities and believe there would likely be a
natural hedge to any commodity price disappointment through currency
depreciation). We therefore maintain our overweight position in Resources,
favouring Platinum and General Mining (particularly those exposed to base metals
where we think spot pricing presents upside risk to earnings forecasts). We have
moved to underweight in Industrials, where we find limited value. Within
Financials, we remain underweight but have shifted in preference of banks,
since we think our revised rate view is creating the environment for positive
earnings surprises in the medium-term, given still relatively bearish top line growth
expectations.

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